Rick Rieder

2023年6月6日

|路透byarchywordys没有评论华盛顿(路透社)- 5月非农就业人口增加了339000,美国劳工部周三表示。一个真正令人瞠目结舌的数字,几乎翻倍,从pre-coronavirus流行的标准,是一种积极的力量在美国劳动力市场由美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)尽管骤然收紧。被证实是坚决维护。华盛顿(路透社)- 5月非农就业人口较上月增加了339000,美国劳工部说,6月2日。资料照片:招聘海报在剑桥的一个店面,马萨诸塞州,2022年7月。路透/然而,布莱恩·斯奈德的详细分析就业数据似乎表现出抑制就业复苏的预期将继续如果目前的趋势继续下去。失业率从3.7%跃升至3.4%。外的大流行时期,没有记录在如此大的单月涨幅超过十年之久。每月增加失业是440000年,2010年11月以来最大。最值得注意的是黑人工人的就业形势恶化,谁占了近一半的失业增加。 As a result, the unemployment rate for blacks jumped from 4.7% to 5.6%, the first sharp rise in 11 years. Indeed, May’s total nonfarm payrolls are on track to fully recoup the jobs lost in the first months of the pandemic, as the Biden administration touted as a symbol of sustained employment strength. Not only have we moved closer to But the rise in black unemployment, which has been feared by Fed critics, may be the fastest warning signal of a turnaround in the labor market. This is because the rapid unemployment of black workers first is one of the characteristics of the economic downturn and recession in the United States. “It’s easy to overreact with just one month of data, but there are certain caveats that can never be ignored,” said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab. Moreover, the average weekly hours worked in May fell to 34.3 hours, below the 2017-19 average. It’s a traditional recession indicator, and could be a signal of a waning labor shortage among employers. ＜Normalization＞ The pace of wage growth also slowed in May. Another aspect of this year’s employment data suggests that the hiring landscape has become less dynamic. The recent rise in unemployment is partly due to fewer people finding jobs. The number of unemployed people who found work in May fell to 1.46 million, seasonally adjusted, about 300,000 less than the average since the beginning of last year. Meanwhile, around 1.68 million people are unemployed and looking for work, about 150,000 more than the average for the past few months. Whether voluntarily or out of necessity, this is an indication that people still want to remain in a post-pandemic labor market that seemed more free to enter, leave, and change jobs. may appear. Although the scale of employment growth itself is outstanding, a closer look at the data suggests that the labor market is “normalizing” from the turmoil caused by the pandemic. For example, the drop in registered employment in the monthly household survey was driven by a drop in the number of sole proprietorships that surged during the pandemic. Rick Rieder, head of global fixed income investment at BlackRock, sees momentum coming from industries such as entertainment and hospitality, which have yet to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, and industries such as healthcare and education, which are suffering from significant labor shortages. One hiring move will continue to drive the overall market even as hiring in other sectors slows, he said. In such an environment, Rieder said the Fed would be right to take a cautious stance. “The fact is that the labor market is very tight due to shortages in some service sectors and historical demographic trends such as aging populations,” Rieder said. “Rather than destroying the labor market now to contain it, we think the economy is more likely to adjust on its own and in a healthier way.” (Reporter Howard Schneider)