2023年6月15日

利润差距开辟了班轮运输行业,但我们预计短期内关闭长期和短期利率之间的差异缩小。不过,有利可图的合同覆盖率较高的线路很快就会分享更多的红墨水spot-orientated竞争对手。1 q23处,集装箱航运公司经历了同比盈利能力大幅下降,不可小觑。底线实质上所有球员包括专业- P穆勒马士基(APMM)和hapag lloyd (HLAG)——但对于较小的球员像ZIM综合运输服务有限公司(结汇)和万海行有限公司(万海),下降幅度甚至,这两个公司净亏损记录。在这个思想,我们深入研究为什么小集装箱航运公司结汇和万海宣布损失虽然大玩家APMM和HLAG设法是有利可图的。APMM和HLAG宣布利润而结汇和万海陷入亏损盈利能力的下降在集装箱运输可以归因于收入的下降,作为大多数公司运营成本保持稳定或事实上,拒绝在同比基础上。考虑同比之下,收入APMM, HLAG, ZIM,万海下降36.6%,28.2%,63.0%和67.2%,分别由于交易量下降和运费APMM净收益,HLAG, ZIM,万海下跌66.3%、53.8%,分别为103.5%和105.4%。按季度,各自的下降相对平缓的货运市场已经开始正常化APMM收入2 h22不可小觑,HLAG, ZIM,万海减少25.8%,29.3%,分别为37.2%和34.9%。运费下降推倒APMM的税前息前利润,HLAG, ZIM,万海16.3 p.p。11.1 p.p。,27.7 p.p. and 24.7 p.p. in 1Q23 compared to 1Q22. High spot exposure led to losses for smaller container shipping players Profitability for all container shipping companies is taking a hit but the magnitude of the decline varies significantly within the industry. The key driving factor for the profit divide is the contract-spot mix of the cargo transported by the carriers, with players having higher spot exposure plunging into losses in 1Q23. APMM transported 67% of its cargo under term contracts in 1Q23 and aims to lock 70% of its volumes under term contracts for 2023, akin to the contract-spot mix it has been following historically. Similarly, HLAG transports the majority of its cargo under term contracts. On the other hand, ZIM which transports half of its volumes on the Transpacific trade route aims to transport half of this volume under term contracts in 2023. Its 1Q23 contract coverage might have been even lower. While Wan Hai does not disclose its contract-spot mix, it is our understanding that the company has a high spot exposure. Tradelane exposure is another driving factor for Wan Hai’s losses We believe part of the reason for the fall in profitability of these carriers is their exposure to different trade lanes. For example, Wan Hai has a higher exposure to the intra-Asia trade lane where freight rates have been historically lower compared to deepsea trades. On the other hand, APMM and HLAG have higher exposure to deepsea trades where despite the precipitous fall, freight rates remained higher than those on short-sea trade routes. Conclusion With the Drewry World Container Index having declined 20.7% YTD in 2023 and fresh contracts now negotiated at much lower levels, the remainder of 2023 is expected to be challenging for container shipping companies as we expect their profits to fall further. The silver lining is the huge cash reserves accumulated during the pandemic boom which will help container shipping companies withstand the ongoing challenges. Source: Drewry