2022年12月6日

在这张拍摄于2022年6月15日的插图照片中可以看到日元纸币。纽约:在一些投资者看来，美元这个世界上表现最差的主要货币有望在2023年出现令人印象深刻的逆转，因为它的两个主要驱动因素——鹰派的美联储(Fed)和鸽派的日本银行(BoJ)——互换了位置。根据巴克莱银行和野村控股公司的数据，日元-今年大部分时间都是受欢迎的对美元空头-明年可能会从目前的水平反弹超过7%，而Vontobel资产管理公司表示，公允价值低于100美元-超过30%。道富环球市场(State Street Global Markets)认为，随着对美国大举加息的担忧消退，股市将迅速反弹，而T. Rowe Price表示，由于日本央行立场更加强硬，股市有上涨空间。“我们可能正在接近日元兑美元的疲软峰值，”T. Rowe全球多资产主管Sébastien Page说，该公司管理着1.28万亿美元(5.6万亿令吉)的资产。当美联储最终暂停加息时，“日本央行就有空间在政策上采取更激进的举措，令市场感到意外”，从而提振日元汇率。这种看涨态度与9月份相比发生了明显变化，当时对冲基金无法满足于做空日元——日元是日本央行超鸽派货币政策的高调受害者。美国和日本之间的收益率差距不断扩大，美国大幅加息，而日本则将利率维持在最低水平以提振经济，这促使日元今年下跌了25%。现在，日本政府对市场的直接干预，以及市场对美联储将放慢加息步伐的希望，已经帮助日元从去年10月的低点攀升了12%以上。对日本央行可能调整政策的猜测，可能会为日本央行的反弹推波助流。日本央行将从4月份开始换届。 A stronger yen would reverberate past the borders of the world’s third-largest economy, potentially siphoning hundreds of billions in dollars of capital back to the Japan while bludgeoning the bottom lines of the nation’s export giants. It would also dampen demand for the popular yen carry trade – where investors borrow in the low-yielding Japanese currency to invest in ones with higher rates and pocket the difference. The yen was trading around the 134.50 per dollar level yesterday – it hit a three-decade low of 151.95 in October. Many bullish yen bets centre around the thesis that US interest rates are fast approaching a peak and the Fed may be spurred to ease in a downturn. For funds such as Jupiter Asset Management and abrdn, that’s a strong possibility next year. “The Fed should change its tack to a relatively dovish side in a quick way in 2023,” said Hachidai Ueda, senior investment specialist of fixed income at abrdn, who expects to see the yen strengthen to as high as 130 per dollar. “The greenback will “lack the driver to the upside which it had in 2022.” Pricing in futures markets suggest traders see US rates peaking around the middle of next year. Funds are also piling on wagers that it’s only a matter of time before the BoJ, the last major developed-market central bank clinging to dovish policy, will capitulate. That’s likely to happen some time after governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April, and will only further catapult the yen’s gains, said Mark Nash, money manager at Jupiter in London. — Bloomberg Article type: free