瑞银证券

2023年1月11日,

瑞银证券2023年预算,预算2023预期,2024年大选,莫迪政府预算2023最新消息,图片来源:Pixabay现任政府的最后完整的预算,预算2023年将是更多的农村和infra-focused,瑞银球状体经纪公司周三在其报告中表示。作为明年大选印度首脑,政府可能出现临时预算之前,全国民意调查中。据瑞银印度经济学家Tanvee Gupta Jain说,“即将到来的预算可能促进农村、农业支出了100亿美元,增长15% FY23并保持两位数增长20%公众对当前财政的资本支出,鉴于这个国家将在2024年中期将投票。“然而,她指出,政府不太可能超越边界与其election-oriented财政预算也预计在FY24大幅补贴负担减轻,创造更多的财政空间来重新分配现有的农村资金计划,包括农村就业计划MGNREGA,农村住房和道路,在别人。她还和铅笔预计经济将进一步减缓未来财政GDP增长率仅为5.5%,远低于6%的共识,认为全球经济增长放缓和延迟货币紧缩政策的影响,加上预期全球经济放缓的溢出效应。但她也表示,该国的结构性增长仍完好无损,因此继续预计国内经济能够保持潜在增长5.75 - -6.25%的中期,当她看到了政府继续推动资本支出,制造业和数字化。卢比她说之前的贬值压力将缓解当地单位管道85美元在今年上半年,然后恢复,卢比将继续低于新兴市场同业。这也会影响债券价格,年中可能峰值7.5%,然后温和的第二财政年底的7%。瑞士经纪也平的市场前景预测零收益的漂亮的,引用已经昂贵的估值。“后退家庭流动和高估值可能打压市场,我们希望漂亮的CAGR(约10.5%的复合年增长率)在未来三年为11%在过去的五年里,报告说。 More than earnings, the brokerage said, the trajectory of the market will be influenced by valuations in the next 12 months. With the pandemic-related excess savings unwinding and local bank deposit rates rising, household flows to market are showing early but clear signs of fatigue, said the brokerage and expected valuations to normalise with receding household flows. Its 12-month Nifty target is at 18,000 (0 per cent upside from current levels, with target PE at 7 per cent above the long-term average. Gupta Jain expects CPI (Consumer Price based Inflation) to moderate towards 5-5.5 per cent in FY24 (from 6.6 per cent in FY23) but to remain above RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent due to uncertainty regarding the food inflation outlook. She expects the repo rate to peak at 6.5 per cent by end-FY23 before easing to 6 per cent by end-FY24.