2023年1月30日

SOPA图像/ LightRocket通过盖蒂图片社江森自控(NYSE: JCI)定于周三公布2023财年第一财季业绩,2月1日。我们预计江森自控在短期内股票走高,收入和利润可能下降略高于一致估计。强劲的需求趋势和更好的价格实现暖通空调产品应该在Q1驱动公司业绩。尽管我们预计公司发布乐观的结果,其股票完全价值,如下面所讨论的。交互式仪表板分析江森自控的收益预览更多细节。JCI获利预估FY2023Q1 Trefis(1)收入预计将略高于预估Trefis估计江森自控的FYQ1 2023收入约63亿美元,反映出对同比上涨7%,略高于62亿美元的一致估计。公司指导有机第一季度收入增长较低的两位数。这可能是由于更好的价格实现,这一趋势在最近的过去。公司的顶线也应该受益于其调和网络(网络安全公司)去年收购。江森自控报道,回顾第四季度营收增长5%至67亿美元,由其全球产品更高的销售额和销售在北美。 At the same time, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America saw a decline in sales. Our dashboard on Johnson Controls Revenues offers more details on the company’s segments. (2) EPS likely to be above the consensus estimates Johnson Controls FYQ1 2023 adjusted earnings per share is expected to be $0.69 per Trefis analysis, slightly above the $0.67 consensus estimate and higher than the company’s provided outlook of $0.65-$0.67. This compares with the $0.54 the company reported in the prior-year quarter. We expect the pricing actions to aid margin growth, likely resulting in an earnings beat. Johnson Controls’ adjusted net income of $682 million in FYQ4 2022 reflected a modest 8.6% rise from its $628 million figure in the prior-year quarter. This can primarily be attributed to higher revenues and a 70 bps rise in EBIT margin. Johnson Controls expects around over 120 bps improvement in segment margins in Q1. Looking forward, for the full-fiscal 2023, we expect the adjusted EPS to be higher at $3.60, compared to $3.00 in fiscal 2022. (3) JCI stock is fully valued We estimate Johnson Controls Valuation to be $66 per share, which is 4% below the current market price of $69. At its current levels, JCI stock is trading at 19x its expected $3.60 EPS for fiscal 2023, compared to the last four-year average of 20x. However, if the company reports upbeat results, with sales growth and fiscal 2023 guidance better than the street estimates, the P/E multiple will likely be revised upward, resulting in higher levels for JCI stock. MORE FOR YOU While JCI stock looks appropriately priced, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out how Johnson Controls Peers fares on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons . Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis and recent market volatility have created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised by how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Novanta vs. Abbott . What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016. JCI Return Compared With Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio Trefis