2021年8月24日

如果你说,“不!”这是极不可能的。偏见可能导致你失去资金的市场。这是你需要的东西……发展你的业务,而不是你的收件箱消息灵通,加入我们的日常通讯现在!电子邮件这个故事最初出现在市场脉动在大学辅修心理学。每一次我遇到一篇关于启发式思考或偏见,我总是停下来阅读,因为他们对自己是如此的迷人的和潜在的破坏性,甚至我们的钱。需要一个偏见的例子吗?例如,假设你说,“1997年,我知道这是一个好主意投资亚马逊。”You've told your friends and colleagues more times than you can count that you "just knew" then that the company would become a gargantuan enterprise. (And they gaze admiringly at you now, in 2021.) If so, you totally got bit by the hindsight bias. This means you view a past event as being more predictable all along. Psychological biases can destroy a portfolio or mangle a trading plan because we're, well, human. Let's explore the ways in which you get in your own way because of your biases. What is Behavioral Finance? Behavioral finance studies how psychological influences can affect market outcomes. You can use behavioral finance to understand the confluence and results of your own psychological biases and investing decisions. Let's go over a few common cognitive biases that may affect your investing decisions so you can catch yourself in the act and do some damage. Confirmation Bias When you suffer from confirmation bias, you go out of your way to look for information that confirms a conclusion or hypothesis you've already determined ahead of time. In other words, you might see a few tidbits of favorable news that makes it seem like you should trade a given stock. You might go as far as to ignore unfavorable news about the company you want to invest in. This can result in the feeling that nothing will go wrong; you might refuse to see all sides of a problem. (This happens a lot in politics, when individuals only seek positive information about the side or candidate they support and consistently only listen to negative information about the opposing party or candidate.) Tips to overcome confirmation bias: Purposely look for contrary opinions — even when you don't want to hear them! Understand the backstory as to why that particular person or entity has taken that position on a stock or company. Don't rely on one source of information and increase your investing knowledge. Information Bias Information bias refers to investors' tendency to look at all information, even useless information, in the context of investing and trading. Traders and investors see and hear so much information every day, from Twitter feeds to sound bites from market commentators, that it's often hard to understand which information should stay on the radar and which they should dismiss. The wrong information can lead you to sell excellent companies and buy into not-as-good companies. Tips to overcome information bias: For investors: Ignore share prices that change daily. Hone in on the important kind of information when making trading and investing decisions and use sound metrics to determine the underlying fundamentals of companies. Loss Aversion Loss aversion means that by nature, people would rather not risk losing money over achieving equivocal gains. People will often avoid investing in a particular investment if there's a known possibility of loss — and that, irrationally, losses are bigger than similar-sized wins. This could lead to passing on investment opportunities for fear of experiencing loss. Tips to overcome loss aversion: Define stop levels or targets in trading. Practice patience and learn to deal with your emotions. Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias means that you see positive past events as predictable and negative events as unpredictable. Hindsight bias clouds objectivity. Here's how it might look: You buy a stock and the price falls. Afterward, you "just knew" it would fall. On the other hand, let's say you earn money for your efforts. Similarly, you "just knew" you made a great decision. Tips to avoid hindsight bias: Keep an investment journal to learn from later. Choose a non-emotional, data-driven approach to investing. Avoid overconfidence. Groupthink You know all about groupthink, or the bandwagon effect. (It's what your mom always warned you about — that dreaded peer pressure.) However, in the context of investing, when other people invest or trade in a particular stock or company, you may feel tempted to do the same because "everyone else does it." The short-selling GameStop phenomenon earlier this year offers a great recent example of groupthink, when investors bought GameStop in droves when the news (and social media) shared enthusiasm for GameStop and many other companies. Tips to overcome groupthink: