2022年10月17日

墨西哥城(路透社)-分析师表示，墨西哥最大的非银行贷款机构可能需要成为持牌银行，因为它们在不断加剧的市场动荡中迂回前行，以避免去年违约的三家大型同行的命运。风险投资基金QED的投资者迈克•帕克(Mike Packer)表示:“任何有严肃、长期抱负的金融科技公司，都可能必须想办法成为一家银行。”QED为多家贷款金融科技公司提供了支持。疫情期间，非银行机构占墨西哥私人信贷市场的20%。它们也被称为“影子银行”，为墨西哥400万至500万中小企业提供从无担保信贷到工资贷款等各种服务。但自那以来，有三家主要的上市公司在一年内违约:阿尔法信贷(alphcredit)、瑞信(creditto Real)和uniifin。现在银行不太愿意为非银行贷款机构提供融资。在最近的违约浪潮中损失了数十亿美元后，国际债券持有人也不情愿。随着人们对该行业信心的枯竭，以及随之而来的流动性下降和利率上升，剩下的参与者面临着远为放缓的增长前景，可能还要为生存而战。穆迪分析师Rodrigo Marimon表示:“面对市场流动性减少的情况，这些金融公司将不得不以更高的成本更新信贷额度，并评估其他国内融资来源。”在墨西哥，这类贷款机构还有另一种选择——成为一家银行，可能是通过收购。 That would allow them to lend out customer deposits rather than relying on credit markets, analysts said. Gilberto Garcia, an analyst at Barclays in Mexico, agreed that nonbank lenders would struggle to grow in the current funding climate, making becoming a bank a more attractive avenue. "At this point, they will have to fund their growth very gradually with their profits, or they can boost their funding pool by pursuing a banking license," he said. Garcia added, though, that becoming a bank is "by no means an easy or quick route, and comes with (onerous) regulatory obligations." Mexican fintech Covalto, previously named Credijusto, successfully went this route last year, acquiring a bank. "We specifically became a bank to prevent the pitfalls of this moment. The stability and security that we have right now, and the long-term benefit of decreasing our cost of capital, that's what we bought," said Covalto co-CEO David Poritz. Poritz also says more shadow banks will eventually follow. "Non-bank lenders will always play a role. But increasingly, companies are going to be going a fully regulated route." Analysts named the likes of Konfio and Brazil's Nubank as possible future-bank candidates. Both companies declined to comment, though a Konfio spokesperson said it recently fired 150 employees as part of a broader restructuring. SURVIVAL The bank route does not resonate with everyone. Some nonbank lenders hope to stick with the existing business model, which emerged to tackle the country's reported $160 billion funding gap. Among them is Tangelo, a digital nonbank lender formed out of the merger of asset-based lender Mexarrend and fintech Zinobe, and boasts credit lines from HSBC and Credit Suisse. "We're going to leave the regulated play for people who already have it," said co-Chief Executive Tarek El Sherif, adding that the Mexican regulator is "actually being very supportive because they don't want the sector to disappear." He added: "There's a real need. We are already getting approached (by Unifin clients)." Moody's has not ruled out the possibility of casualties and flagged the sector's need to improve corporate governance. Still, Marimon said shadow banks "that maintain their credit origination policies in a prudent manner (have) good business prospects." Indeed, a drop in competition has opened up new prospects, El Sherif said, arguing that the sector will survive its short-term bumps. "The people that survive will thrive and grow, and there's a lot of market share to scoop up. It's definitely a time to be aggressive." (Reporting by Isabel Woodford, Additional reporting by Carolina Pulice; Editing by David Gregorio) By Isabel Woodford