2022年12月28日

纽约——美国股市投资者非常渴望翻开2022年这一页，这是残酷的一年，美联储(Federal Reserve)上调利率，旨在抑制40年来最严重的通货膨胀。我们很抱歉，但是这个视频无法加载。在距离2022年只剩下几个交易日的时候，标普500指数(S&P 500)今年迄今已下跌近20%，有望创下2008年以来的最大日历年跌幅。纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)的暴跌更为严重，今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌近34%。注册后，您将收到《金融邮报》每日的头条新闻。《金融邮报》是Postmedia Network Inc.的一个部门。通过点击注册按钮，您同意从Postmedia Network Inc.接收上述通讯。您可以随时通过点击我们电子邮件或任何时事通讯底部的退订链接来退订。邮编:安大略省多伦多市布罗尔街东365号，邮编:M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300感谢您的报名!欢迎邮件正在路上。如果你没有看到，请检查你的垃圾文件夹。 The next issue of Financial Post Top Stories will soon be in your inbox. We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again Article content High-profile casualties include the once-soaring shares of Amazon.com Inc, which have slumped around 50% this year, while those of Tesla Inc are down some 70% and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc shares have lost about 65%. Meanwhile, energy stocks have bucked the trend by posting eye-popping gains. Advertisement 2 Article content Inflation, and the Fed’s degree of aggressiveness in trying to contain it, will likely remain a critical factor driving equity performance as 2023 gets under way. But investors will also be watching for fallout from higher interest rates, including how tighter monetary policy ripples through the economy and whether it makes other assets more competitive with stocks. Here is a look at some of the big themes for the U.S. stock market in 2023. RECESSION OR SOFT LANDING? Perhaps the biggest question that will sway stocks as the new year begins is whether the economy is headed for a recession, as many investors are expecting. If a recession starts next year, stocks could be set for another slide: A bear market has never bottomed before the beginning of a recession, historic data showed. Advertisement 3 Article content Recessions tend to hit stocks hard, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Those declines, however, have usually been followed by a strong rebound. PROFITS AT RISK? Investors are also concerned that corporate earnings estimates may not have fully factored in a potential slowdown, leaving more downside for stocks. Consensus analyst estimates project S&P 500 earnings to rise 4.4% in 2023, according to Refinitiv IBES. Yet earnings fall by an average annual rate of 24% during recessions, according to Ned Davis Research. GOODBYE, TINA? The Fed’s rate hikes have pushed up bond yields and created competition for equities, flying in the face of the low-yield environment that predominated for more than a decade and gave rise to the acronym “TINA,” or “there is no alternative” to stocks. Advertisement 4 Article content Yields on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – also known as real yields because they strip out projected inflation – recently stood at around 1.5%, after hitting their highest level in over a decade in October. Still, some investors have noted that stocks fared well in past periods when yields were even higher. CAN VALUE VAULT AHEAD? In the past year, value stocks – commonly defined as those trading at a discount on metrics such as book value or price-to-earnings – held up better than tech and other growth shares, reversing trends that had been in place for much of the past decade. With higher yields and doubts about profit growth standing to pressure tech and growth stocks, the question is whether value – which is more heavily represented by financial, energy and defensive groups – could be poised for another year of outperformance. DOLLAR MAKING A DENT The dollar’s surge against other currencies this year hurt the earnings of many U.S. companies, making it more expensive for multinationals to convert their earnings back into their home currency. The greenback has pared some of those gains in recent weeks and a continued reversal would depend in part on investor perceptions of how hawkish the Fed will be relative to other global central banks. (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York Additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew Lewis)