效率2.0

2018年3月14日,

2018年3月14日,集体的能量说唱的长期的一个秘诀是:“效率就是答案。有什么问题吗?“我们已经表明,能源效率提供了一个“夹心蛋糕”多的好处,它可以帮助我们满足几乎三分之一的电力系统需求在未来十年,“效率第一”应该主要优先能源系统发展的路标。这些努力的基础是最便宜的原则千瓦时的电力是一个你不使用。但随着可再生能源的成本下降precipitously-with太阳能下2美分每千瓦时和陆上风力2分原则是受到质疑。效率永远是最便宜的资源吗?如何效率和可再生能源和电气能源最终用途——这个新环境暴跌的价格吗?我们需要考虑“能源效率2.0”,如果是这样,它看起来像什么?我把这些问题交给了我的同事最近在说唱,和热烈的讨论。简短的回答是,没有人肯定效率2.0应该是什么样子。 But the long answer begins with the sober realization that things haven’t changed that much yet. As they do, efficiency and renewables can’t be thought of as opposing forces, but rather tools that go hand in hand toward a lower-cost, lower-risk, and lower-carbon future. Efficiency is still the cheapest zero-emissions resource in many—if not most—cases. It’s true that efficiency and mature renewables are fast approaching parity as we look ahead to our next choice of resource. But it’s also important to remember Economics 101: Price pressures don’t always go in one direction. The European Climate Foundation’s Roadmap 2050 study and other sources note that we still face limitations in ramping up vast amounts of renewables at a reasonable cost over the longer term, including hard limits on materials supply and manufacturing. So reaching very high levels of renewables penetration will likely require the tapping of resources that are more costly than those in use today. Efficiency likely will beat those costlier renewables investments for many years to come. We are still in the early stages of retiring fossil fuels, and the variable output of renewables means this is likely to be a long process, especially for natural gas. The cost of energy storage to provide grid support for renewables is declining rapidly, so the combination of renewables and storage may soon edge out natural gas and efficiency as the cheapest clean resource. But to meet the ambitious scope and pace of global climate goals, we need every tool in our tool belt. And these tools work together. The International Renewable Energy Agency recently published a study showing that efficiency operates in tandem with renewables to achieve higher penetrations of clean energy, lowering system costs and emissions over time. As our colleagues in RAP’s European program cautioned recently , “Efficiency First” is not merely a slogan. To the contrary, they said, “wasting valuable renewable resources on inefficient end-use consumption makes little economic sense and slows the pace of decarbonization.” If we think of decarbonization as a marathon we need to run, we can move the finish line closer (with efficiency) even as we accelerate the pace of our run (by adding renewables to the grid). Further, no renewable resource is actually emissions-free when the full supply chain is considered, and all forms of generation have environmental impacts. Maximizing efficiency as a resource (even if it has some supply chain issues of its own) can help minimize those impacts. And efficiency, in the context of an integrated resource plan, remains an effective tool by which utilities can save money and reduce risk for their customers. Efficiency 2.0 won’t be as simple as just using fewer kWh. RAP’s work on beneficial electrification has been weighing how best to reconcile electrification and efficiency, and one of our guiding principles is that electrification cannot be considered beneficial unless end uses are as efficient as possible. As Steve Specker, former CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute, wisely said, we must use less electricity where we can, so we can use more electricity where we should. Efficiency is still the answer, even as we are compelled to ask new questions.